14-1. Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.

【译文】世界上最好的两三天以上的天气预报都具有很强的猜测性，如果超过六七天，天气预报就没任何价值了。

【单词和短语】

speculative：推测的，猜测性的(based on guessing, not on information or facts)，

例如：

Government’s estimate of possible coal resources as lasting for 800 years is speculative.

政府关于煤的资源能够持续开采800年的估计纯粹是推断出来的。

speculative的动词形式为speculate，名词形式为speculation。

worthless：无价值的，不值钱的，没用处的(something that is worthless has no value, importance, or use)，

例如：

worthless currency不值钱的货币

a worthless, broken tool不值钱的坏工具

worthless的同义词有valueless，反义词有worthwhile， worthy，valuable和invaluable。

14-2. The Butterfly Effect is the reason.

【译文】原因就在于蝴蝶效应。

【讲解】Butterfly Effect，即“蝴蝶效应”，指一个复杂系统中的微小变化可能导致别处的巨大变化(据称里约热内卢的一只蝴蝶扇动翅膀可能改变芝加哥的天气)。

14-3. For small pieces of weather—and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards—any prediction deteriorates rapidly.

【译文】就小范围天气而言，任何预报都很快走样，而对于全球预报员来说，雷雨和暴风雪也算是小范围的事。

【单词和短语】

deteriorate：恶化，质量(价值)下降，退化，变质，堕落(to become worse)，

例如：

Relations between the two countries began to deteriorate in the 1990s.

在20世纪90年代，两国关系开始恶化。

His work has deteriorated in recent years.

近年来他的工作质量逐渐下降。

His health deteriorated with age.

随着年龄增长，他的健康每况愈下。

deteriorate的名词形式为deterioration，形容词形式为deteriorative。

14-4. Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.

【译文】误差和不确定性剧烈放大，它们通过一系列湍流状态，从小尘暴和暴风剧增到只有卫星才能观察到的大陆范围的气旋。

【讲解】that only satellites can see系定语从句，修饰eddies。

【单词和短语】

turbulent在文中意为“湍流的”(turbulent air or water moves around a lot)，该词的常见意为“动荡的，骚乱的”(a turbulent situation or period of time is one in which there are a lot of sudden changes)，

例如：

a turbulent childhood 动荡的童年

a turbulent period of history 动荡的历史时期

a turbulent crowd 骚乱的人群

turbulent的名词形式为turbulence。

14-5. The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere.

【译文】现代气象模型以一个坐标图来显示，图中相邻两点约间隔60英里。既使是这样，有些开始时的资料也得靠猜测，因为地面工作站和卫星不可能看到每个地方。

【单词和短语】

of the order of：大约(approximately)，

例如：

His income is of the order of $6000 a month.

他的月收入约为6000美元。

14-6. But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere.

【译文】但假设地球上可以布满间隔1英尺的传感器，并按1英尺的间隔从地面一直排到大气层顶端。

【单词和短语】

space：(用间隔)分隔开(to arrange objects or events so that they have equal spaces or periods of time between them)，

例如：

a closely spaced series of explosions 相隔紧密的一系列爆炸

space one’s time evenly 均匀地分配时间

Letters might be spaced to two or three days. 每隔两三天会有信来。

14-7. Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want.

【译文】再假定每个传感器都丝毫不差地读出了温度、气压、湿度和气象学家可能需要的任何其他数据。

【单词和短语】

由meteorologist(气象学家)联想到meteorology(气象学)、meteorological observatory(气象台)和meteorological station(气象站)。

14-8. Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 1202, then 12.03...

【译文】在正午时分，一台功能不可限量的计算机搜集了所有的资料，计算出每个点12点01分、12点02分、12点03分及以后每分钟可能出现的情况。

【单词和短语】

infinite: 无限的，无穷的，无边的(very great in amount or degree)，

例如：

the infinite ingenuity of man 人类无穷无尽的创造力

Space is infinite. 宇宙的无边无际的。

infinite的名词形式为infinity(想到无穷大的符号∞)或infinitude。

14-9. The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away.

【译文】计算机将仍然无法预测新泽西州的普林斯顿1个月后那天究竟是晴天还是雨日。

【单词和短语】

predict：预言，预计，预料，预报(to say that something will happen, before it happens)，

例如：

He predicted a brilliant future for the child.

他曾预言这孩子前程似锦。

Terrorism in this country is predicted to increase in coming years.

预计该国的恐怖活动今后几年还会增加。

predict的名词形式为prediction。

14-10. At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average.

【译文】正午时分，传感器之间的距离会掩盖计算机无法知道的波动和任何偏平均值的变化。

【讲解】that the computer will not know about系定语从句，修饰sensors。

【单词和短语】

fluctuate：波动，涨落，起伏(if a price or amount fluctuates, it keeps changing and becoming higher and lower)，

例如：

You cannot match in straight line to the victory; you fluctuate to it.

你不可能一帆风顺地走向胜利，而要经过许多波折才能达到。

The demands fluctuate seasonally。

需求随季节而变动。

fluctuate的名词形式为fluctuation。

14-11. By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away.新概念作文网

【译文】到12点01分，那些波动就已经会在1英尺远的地方造成小偏差。

14-12. Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.

【译文】很快这些偏差会增加到10英尺的范围，如此一直扩大到全球的范围。